Tourism arrivals in New Zealand have remained steady despite a slow February for the local sector.
Tourism arrivals continue to rise, up 7.8 percent pa in the three months to February 2025. Arrivals in February fell 2.3 percent pa, reflecting that Lunar New Year switched from February in 2024 to January in 2025. In total, 354,408 tourists arrived in February 2025, amounting to 85 percent of February 2019 (pre-pandemic levels), moderating from 93 percent in January 2025.
There were around 64,000 tourism arrivals from the United States in February, the strongest month on record, contributing to a three-month annual growth rate of 12 percent pa. Arrivals from China fell below 20,000 in February, reflecting that the typical peak of Chinese visitation around Lunar New Year switched to January this year.
Despite the slight slowdown in arrival numbers, Queenstown and Christchurch Airports both recorded increases in arrivals, up 3.5 percent pa and 1.3 percent pa respectively. Auckland Airports arrival numbers slowed from last year, down 5.4 percent pa and to 82 percent of pre-pandemic levels.
There continues to be strong New Zealand tourist departures, although down 4.5 percent pa from a year ago, departure numbers in February amounted to 110 percent of pre-pandemic levels and have remained above 97 percent for the past six months.
We may continue to see notable levels of New Zealand tourist departures as the effects of easing monetary policy see household budget pressures ease further in 2025. Potential holiday plans which could have been put on pause in recent years may be revived, resulting in further growth in departure numbers.
Arrivals from the United States were a point of strength in February, with the weak New Zealand dollar a potential driver. Although the US is our second-largest tourism market, behind Australia, recent strength may not persist given economic instability in the world’s largest economy.
The outlook for tourism arrival numbers is uncertain as the effects of the current trade war remain unclear. Global growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 are expected to be slower than historical levels at around 2.5 percent pa, but escalating trade protectionism may lead to slower growth in our key tourism markets, and lower future arrival numbers as a result.
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