USA | ISM has reported that it expects economic activity to expand through 2026, with supply chain procurement at its forefront.
The U.S. economy is expected to continue to expand over the rest of 2026, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the Spring 2026 ISM Supply Chain Planning Forecast. Expectations for the remainder of 2026 are higher than those expressed in December 2025. The U.S. economy continues to successfully battle the headwinds posed by trade issues, continued inflation concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty.
These projections are part of the forecast issued by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Business Survey panellists. The forecast was presented today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, and Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee.
Revenue for 2026 is expected to increase, on average, by 8.4 percent. This is 4 percentage points higher than the December 2025 forecast of 4.4 percent, and 5.9 percentage points higher than the 2.5 percentage point year-over-year increase reported for 2025. Eighty-two percent of respondents say that revenues for 2026 will increase, on average, 12.7 percent compared to 2025. Seventeen percent say revenues will decrease (12 percent, on average), and zero percent indicate no change. With an operating rate of 86.9 percent, a projected 4.9 percent increase in capital expenditures, a 14.1-percent increase in prices paid for raw materials and a marginal (1.4 percent) increase in employment expected by the end of 2026, the manufacturing sector will continue to grow through 2026
"With 14 manufacturing industries expecting revenue growth and seven industries expecting employment growth in 2026, panellists forecast a healthy rest of the year. Sentiment in each industry was generally consistent with performance reports in the May 2026 Manufacturing ISM PMI Reports, as well as the fall ISM Supply Chain Planning Forecast released in December," said Spence.
The 14 of 18 industries that report projected revenue increases for the rest of 2026, listed in order, are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Paper Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Plastics & Rubber Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Furniture & Related Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; and Chemical Products.
Respondents expect 8.6 percent growth in revenues in 2026, 4 percentage points higher than the 4.6-percent increase forecast in December 2025. Eighty-one percent of respondents say that revenues for 2026 will increase, on average, 12.9 percent compared to 2025. Meanwhile, 15 percent expect their revenues to decrease (11.3 percent, on average), and 4 percent indicate no change.
"The services sector will continue to lead the economy in 2026. Services companies are currently operating at 91.3 percent of normal capacity. Supply managers indicate that prices are expected to increase 8.9 percent over the year, reflecting increasing inflation. Employment is projected to grow only slightly (0.9 percentage point). Sixteen industries forecast increased revenues, the same as predicted in December 2025," said Miller.
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