International visitor arrivals slipped by 1.8 percent in May from April on a seasonally adjusted basis, but the wider recovery continued. Arrivals were 6.7 percent higher than in May 2025 and had returned to 93 percent of May 2019 levels.
According to Infometrics’ analysis of the latest tourism data, New Zealand recorded 3.66 million international visitor arrivals in the year to May 2026, up 8.5 percent on the previous 12 months.
For New Zealand hotels, the more useful question may not be whether tourism is recovering. It is whether that recovery is producing the right mix of guests, room nights and rates across each market.
The monthly fall shows the recovery is unlikely to move in a straight line. It also reinforces the limits of using the national arrival total as a direct measure of hotel demand.
The source of the growth matters.
Infometrics reported that China accounted for 34 percent of the year-on-year increase in May, with 4,362 additional arrivals compared with May 2025. This represented a rise of 27 percent.
However, Chinese visitor arrivals across the year to May were still only 77 percent of pre-pandemic levels. By comparison, Australia had reached 102 percent of its pre-pandemic volume and the United States was at 105 percent.
Does that remaining gap point to further demand still to return from China, or has the market changed sufficiently that 2019 is no longer the most useful benchmark?
The answer may vary considerably between destinations and properties. Hotels connected to group travel, established itineraries, family tourism and major South Island routes could experience the Chinese recovery differently from urban properties more dependent on independent travellers, business demand or North American visitors.
There is also the question of value. Are higher arrival numbers translating into longer stays, stronger average daily rates and greater spending across food and beverage, or are they arriving through channels where commissions, group rates and inclusions change the net return?
The national arrival total cannot answer that.
Australia remains New Zealand’s largest visitor market and provided another 3,330 arrivals in May, a rise of 3.9 percent. Its continued growth offers a degree of stability, but with Australian arrivals already above pre-pandemic levels, how much additional growth can realistically be expected from this market?
Australia may remain the volume foundation for many hotels, yet volume alone does not necessarily create stronger pricing. Short-haul visitors can travel more frequently, but they can also book shorter stays, compare rates closely and respond quickly to changes in airfares or household spending.
Malaysia and Singapore provide another angle.
Infometrics found that arrivals from Malaysia increased by 60 percent in May, while Singapore rose by 35 percent. Together, the two markets accounted for 28 percent of the overall year-on-year increase.
Singapore has now returned to 100 percent of pre-pandemic levels, while Malaysia remains at 86 percent.
Could these markets become more significant within New Zealand’s hotel demand mix, particularly as aviation links and travel patterns across Asia continue to develop? Or will the growth remain concentrated around particular destinations, seasons and travel segments?
It may be too early to draw firm conclusions, but the figures suggest that the Asian recovery is broader than China alone. They also raise questions about whether grouping markets under a single regional label provides enough detail for hotels examining their future demand.
The airport figures underline how uneven the recovery has become.
Christchurch Airport recorded a 22 percent increase in international visitor arrivals in May, narrowly ahead of Queenstown at 20 percent. Auckland grew by just 0.7 percent, while Wellington increased by 0.2 percent, according to Infometrics.
Why are Christchurch and Queenstown moving so much faster?
Direct international connectivity is likely to be part of the answer, alongside South Island itineraries, event demand and the concentration of leisure travel. Yet the gap also suggests that national tourism growth may look very different depending on where a hotel is located.
A property in Christchurch may be experiencing an increase in international demand that bears little resemblance to conditions in Auckland or Wellington. Even within the same city, airport hotels, luxury properties, serviced apartments and mid-market accommodation may be seeing different booking patterns.
This makes the national headline useful as a direction of travel, but less useful as a measure of individual hotel performance.
Auckland presents a further complication. Additional hotel supply has entered the market over recent years, meaning rising visitor demand must also be considered against the number of rooms competing for that business.
Can occupancy continue improving without rates becoming more competitive? Is the additional supply being absorbed evenly, or are particular hotel categories carrying more of the adjustment?
Those questions become more relevant when visitor growth through Auckland Airport remains modest compared with Christchurch and Queenstown.
Domestic travel may provide a second source of demand.
Infometrics reported that departures by New Zealand citizens fell by 4.7 percent in May from April on a seasonally adjusted basis and were down 6.1 percent from May 2025. April had also recorded a monthly decline.
Infometrics suggested that the lower New Zealand dollar and disruption associated with conflict in the Middle East may be reducing New Zealanders’ willingness to travel overseas.
Could fewer overseas departures support domestic hotel stays, particularly for weekend breaks, events and drive-market destinations?
Possibly, although the relationship is not automatic. A household that decides against an overseas holiday may choose a domestic trip, but it may also reduce travel spending altogether. The same concerns affecting international travel decisions, including airfares, exchange rates and household budgets, can also shape domestic accommodation demand.
The fall in New Zealand departures, therefore, creates potential, but not certainty.
Infometrics also linked the May decline in international arrivals to Middle East conflict, flight disruptions and higher airfares, particularly in relation to travel from North America and Europe.
That interpretation provides useful context, although monthly tourism figures can reflect bookings made across several periods. Airline schedules, route capacity, seasonal travel patterns and exchange rates can all affect the result.
The broader direction remains positive. International arrivals are rising year on year, China is recovering, Southeast Asian markets are contributing more visitors and Christchurch and Queenstown are recording strong gateway growth.
The unresolved issue is how much of that recovery is reaching hotel balance sheets.
Are more visitors staying longer? Are they arriving during periods when hotels have rooms available? Are they supporting rates, or filling inventory through lower-yield channels? Is demand broadening across the country, or becoming increasingly concentrated in selected gateways and destinations?
The May figures, and Infometrics’ analysis of them, do not point to a reversal in the tourism recovery. They do suggest that its next stage will be judged less by the total number of visitors and more by where they travel, how they book and what their stay contributes.
For hotels, the headline is encouraging. The commercial picture beneath it remains far less uniform.
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